When Donald Trump invited about 20 prominent oil and gas executives to dine with him at Mar-a-Lago in April, he made a breathtakingly corrupt proposal: If they raised a billion dollars to help him retake the White House, he would roll back any policy they didn’t like when he took office. Several fossil fuel companies and their executives have since answered his call with brio, becoming among the top donors to the Trump campaign and Trump-aligned super PACs.
As clean energy begins to challenge the dominance of oil and gas, what some industry barons and their allies fear most is being perceived — by investors, policymakers and the public — as entering a state of terminal decline. If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, she could hasten the arrival of that moment by pursuing policies and regulations that would lead to lower consumption of oil and gas. If Mr. Trump is the victor, the industry is betting he will slam the brakes on the clean energy transition, prolong demand for oil and gas and help maintain the primacy of fossil fuels for decades to come.
So much anxiety might seem puzzling given that the Biden years have been very good for U.S. oil and gas producers. Domestic oil production is at record highs. The United States is the world’s top producer and leading exporter of natural gas, and profits of companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron have surged, too. Even Mr. Biden’s signature climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, offers the industry generous subsidies, thanks to its tax credits for carbon capture and sequestration and for hydrogen production. The biggest oil and gas producers want Mr. Trump to keep the bill intact if he wins.
But if you take the long view, as these companies do, other policies of the Biden administration — which would probably be continued by a Harris administration — could pose a significant threat to their interests.
Take, for example, the federal government’s pause on approving new gas export facilities. Liquefied natural gas export terminals have proliferated on the Gulf Coast over the past decade as demand from foreign buyers has risen. But in recent years, scientists and climate activists have raised concerns about the methane emissions associated with cooling and shipping gas overseas.
In January, in an apparent concession to this mounting pressure, Mr. Biden’s Department of Energy put on hold its permitting for most new projects so that it could update how it determines whether these projects are in the public interest. This pause did not affect several projects that were already approved and under construction, which will nearly double the amount of gas the United States exports by 2028 once completed. (In July, a federal judge ruled against the suspension in a case brought by Republican-led state attorneys general. The agency is appealing it.) But the industry is furious anyway, because it sees gas exports as key to its long-term viability and the permitting freeze could cool investors’ enthusiasm.
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